Justify was a $500,000 2016 Keenland September yearling purchase. His sire, Scat Daddy, unfortunately died in his paddock at a young age. He was a beast in the breeding shed during that time, having amassed close to 100 stakes winners to date. On this year’s derby trail, along with Justify, he is the dad of Flameaway, Combatant, and Mendelsshon. Scat Daddy never won past 1 1/8 miles, has had a lot more success with his turf runners than his dirt, and has had only 7 winners at the mile and a quarter distance or further, with most being on grass.
Justify’s dam, Stage Magic, was a multiple stakes placed horse on the track. His grand dam, Magical Illusion, was a stakes winner, and 3rd dam, Voodoo Lily, was a Grade III winner. Justify has some class running through his tail female line.
By Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy, and out of a stakes winning sprinter, Noble Indy’s pedigree is not as strong as many of his peers, but he may just have enough going for him to cover the 10 furlongs when looking at his 2nd and 3rd dam sire.
Noble Indy’s sire, Take Charge Indy, earned just over a million dollars on the track, winning the Grade I Florida Derby at 3 going 9 furlong, showing speed just like Noble Indy did in his Louisiana Derby win. Will Take Charge has a brilliant pedigree, by AP Indy out of 2013 Broodmare of the Year Take Charge Lady. Will Take Charge finished 3rd with his freshman crop in 2017 by earnings, and so far this year is the leading second crop sire. While most of his winners thus far have won at sprint distances, he has produce one winner in his young stallion career at 1 3/16 miles. He now stands in Korea.
Noble Indy’s dam, Noble Maz, was a stakes winner at 5 furlongs. She did race 28 times, and earned over $300,000. His grand dam, Illusive Note, was unraced and the dam of 3 winners, including Noble Maz. His 4th dam, Impetuous Gal, was a GII winner at 9 furlongs, and gave out Banker’s Lady, a GI winner and earner of over $500,000. This is a very ordinary female family.
Noble Indy’s dam sire is Storm Boot. He only earned $70,000 on the track, and was Storm Cat’s first successful sire, producing 46 stakes winners with earnings of over $26 million dollars. He, too, was known for his speed on the track. His second dam sire, Dixieland Band, was a multiple Grade II winner at 9 furlongs. He had a very successful breeding career, siring over 115 stakes winners and over 40 Graded Stakes winners. He was a strong broodmare sire, producing both Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense and Monarchos. Finally, Noble Indy’s 3rd dam sire is Travers Stakes winner and 1987 champion two year old Forty Niner. He was an excellent producer in the breeding shed, giving us the likes of Distorted Humor (tremendous sire), Travers Stakes winner Coronado’s Quest, and Belmont Stakes winner Editor’s Note.
While being by a young sire in Will Take Charge, who was known for his speed, and having a female family that’s modest at best, Noble Indy’s dam sire line gives us enough clues to say that there’s a possibility he can stretch his speed out to 10 furlongs. It did, though, look like there was a lot asked of him to do it at 9 furlongs in yesterday’s Louisiana Derby.
Promises Fulfilled is by Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford, and this is only his second crop of three year olds to race. He becomes the 4th stakes winner for Shackleford, following Malagacy, Wellabled and Dream It. Shackleford was very fast, and he seems to have passed his speed on to Promises Fulfilled, after viewing his gate-to-wire upset in the G2 Fountain of Youth.
Promises Fulfiled’s dam, Marquee Delivery, was a Grade III winner at a mile and an eighth. His grand dam, Fast Delivery, was a multiple stakes winning filly. The back end of his female family is nothing of note.
Promises Fulfilled’s dam sire, Marquestry, earned close to $3 million dollars on the race track, including winning the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup at 10 Furlongs. He sired 35 stakes winners with progeny earnings of over $40 million dollars. He produced 2 champions, but both were sprinters (Artax and Squirtle Squirt). Promises Fulfilled 2nd dam sire is Little Missouri. He won the Grade I Brooklyn Handicap at 1 1/2 miles, and also sired Preakness Stakes winner Prairie Bayou. His 3rd dam sire, Copelan, didn’t win at distances up to 1 1/4 miles, and wasn’t much of a producer in the breeding shed either.
With a young sire in which you have little to go on, a female family that isn’t particularly strong, and a dam sire line producing little in terms of stamina, I can’t recommend Promises Fulfilled to last the distance of 10 furlongs, especially with a dosage index of 9.00.
Out of the 11 horses I analyzed in my article on pedigree and which three year olds have the capacity to get the distance, I see the vast majority as having a chance, with some being more convincing than others. I hope this gives you something to run with as a piece of the puzzle towards who becomes your favorite horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby. I also hope to do another similar piece with horses I left out. Thanks for reading!